If they seriously have no idea why crime is dropping

by wfgodbold

Can they really be called “experts?” (H/T @45superman’s retweet)

We keep hearing about how everything is more dangerous now, and if we’d only ban x, or regulate y more strictly, crime would lessen.

I don’t think anything is being done that differently, and yet crime is dropping.

According to FBI statistics, there were ~5.5% fewer violent crimes in 2010 than in 2009.

There were 14.4 million NICS background checks in 2010, and only 14 million in 2009.

More guns clearly doesn’t cause more crime; even taking into account that all of the NICS checks reported aren’t necessarily coincident with a gun sale, it’s true that a nonzero number of guns were purchased by non-military, non-law enforcement personell. And yet crime still decreased.

Someone could probably write a book about this


2 Comments to “If they seriously have no idea why crime is dropping”

  1. My only problem with the book (and I say this without having actually read it) is that “more guns != more crime” is not necessarily equivalent to “more guns = less crime”. The latter requires a significantly stricter definition of causality than the former, and without being able to control for a vast number of variables (some of which may be unknown, and all of which interrelate outside of firearms), one is left questioning the accuracy of the methods employed.

    • That’s true. Correlation ≠ causation, after all.

      I haven’t actually read it, myself, to be honest.

      You make an excellent point, though; if nothing else, the decrease in crime has shown that more guns does not mean more crime.

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